SparkToro and Similarweb: open-web traffic flat since 2021 as web users grew 24%
What this answers
- Has traffic to the open web fallen in the last five years?
- Not in total, per SparkToro's analysis of Similarweb panel data: visits to the top million sites stayed about flat from 2021 to 2026 and the split between big and small sites barely changed. Estimated web users grew about 24% over the same period, so visits per user fell, which SparkToro says it cannot explain.
SparkToro’s Rand Fishkin published an analysis of Similarweb’s global panel of mobile and desktop browser traffic, covering monthly visits to the top million websites from 2021 to 2026. Total visits stayed about flat, and the share going to the top 10, 11–100, 101–5,000, 5,001–100,000 and 100,001–1,000,000 most-visited domains changed little. Fishkin had expected Big Tech to be hoarding a growing share and says the data did not show it.
The post’s headline says traffic “fell 24%”, but its text does not report a 24% drop in visits. The 24% matches growth in estimated web users, from 4.95 billion in Q4 2021 to 6.15 billion in Q3 2026 per DataReportal; roughly 0.4 billion of that arrived in one quarter (5.65 billion in Q2 2025 to 6.04 billion in Q3 2025). With visits flat and users up, visits per user fell. That is an inference from two separate sources, not a measured per-user figure.
Stated limits: browser traffic only, with apps not observed; worldwide totals, so regional declines could be offset by growth elsewhere; and the cause is left open. Fishkin asks whether AI tools, search engines and social networks are reducing visits, or whether people are using apps instead, and says “we can’t say for certain.” He plans to validate with further sources.
Why it matters: It frames 'AI is taking web traffic' as a per-user question: if sites hold flat visits while the online population grows, each person is visiting fewer sites, though this analysis cannot say whether AI search, apps or something else is the cause.
The record: SparkToroSimilarweb
Via SparkToro ↗
Posted to the wire November 10, 2026. Edited by Joe Balewski.